Saturday, October 11, 2008

More Thoughts on the Sub 2 Hour Marathon

Using a graph and his own formula, Martin predicts the 2-hour mark will be broken in 2015. Using the same technique, he predicted years ago that a woman would break 2:20 in 2002 — Naoko Takahashi of Japan beat his forecast by four months with a 2:19:46 in September 2001. (Dave Martin is an PhD exercise physiologist and respected marathon expert)

"I don't think the top runners are even talking about it. I've heard physiologists say 2:02 is the limit. Obviously it can come down some more. I don't think 2 hours is happening real soon. But I would not bet money on it." -Bill Rodgers

"I don't think we'll see it in our lifetime or with the human body as we know it. I'm sure they said the same thing about the 4-minute mile. To do it, you are going to have to come within a minute of the world record in the half marathon (58:33, by Wanjiru) and then still have the energy and reserves to do it again. It's inconceivable.

"I don't think there's anyone with that amount of energy or oxygen-carrying capacity."
-Alberto Salazar

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